中文
The ethylene market in Asia began to rebound from the end of April to the record low. So far (May 25), the price of ethylene monomer in Northeast Asia is 672-680 US dollars / ton, and that in Southeast Asia is 612-620 US dollars / ton. In just over a month, the price of ethylene in Asia has increased to 284-344 US dollars / ton. What is the reason for the rapid rise of ethylene market price? Here is a brief analysis of the recent trend.
Naphtha, as the cracking raw material of ethylene industry, gives important guidance to ethylene in Asia. Oil prices rose on optimism. Since April 22, its price has doubled dramatically. Brent 07 contract rebounded 85% from the lowest point, and WTI 07 contract rebounded 100% from the lowest point. This is mainly due to the following factors: first, since May, OPEC + production reduction has been carried out well, and the demand outlook has gradually improved, and the worry of oversupply has eased. Second, the U.S. crude oil inventory has declined, while the number of oil and gas drilling platforms in the U.S. has decreased continuously.
Domestic demand is strong, while under the condition of Eurasia arbitrage closing, influenced by the maintenance of multiple units in China and Japan and the low opening rate of domestic MTO, the overall market supply continues to be tight.
The downstream derivatives styrene, ethylene oxide and PVC are still the main sources of demand with good profits. At present, the operation rate of domestic styrene plant has recovered to about 80%, which is expected to increase the demand of ethylene market, and the procurement enthusiasm of Asian ethylene market has increased significantly.
In conclusion, Asian ethylene prices may remain strong in the short term.
Ethylene prices may remain strong in June due to a lack of supply. However, in July, the market was affected by the restart of devices and European arbitrage, and the expectation was weak. For the polyethylene market, at the end of May and the beginning of June, some imported goods were concentrated in Hong Kong, the supply situation was not optimistic. In addition, the downstream demand shrank obviously, and the situation of supply exceeding demand was difficult to ease, which always suppressed the market. However, fortunately, upstream costs continue to support the market, and the short-term polyethylene market is unlikely to fall sharply.